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Oliver's Twist's avatar

Hi Lennox, thank you for sharing your experience!

I wish I had the time to write a full post in response, but here are my main takeaways.

First:

I believe I am reading Meditation’s on Moloch quite differently than you did.

You say that “Ruthless competition, misaligned incentives, and coordination failure are the norm, operating at every level of society, from individuals to corporations to political parties to nation states. There's generally no one person or group with enough power to unilaterally change the system, not even the capitalist class,” but Alexander specifically argues that we aren’t currently stuck under Moloch’s heel, that the rules are different right now. “This is an age of whalefall, an age of excess carrying capacity, an age when we suddenly find ourselves with a thousand-mile head start on Malthus. As Hanson puts it, this is the dream time.”

I see Alexander as saying, during The Dream Time, right now, IS the only time that we can make positive change. We have a chance to, however slim, of break free from Moloch’s influence, before harsher Malthusian pressures return. And, even if it’s difficult, in Scott’s words: “at least it’s an actionable strategy.”

Second:

In your short critique of Marxism section, I don’t see how those points are specifically applicable to Marxism over any other ideology or group identity? You say:

“Class coordination requires aligned interests, but alignment is rare due to this individual variation”, but so does religious coordination, or national coordination, or any other political coordination, and yet all of these other tribes do coordinate, frequently, and to great success, despite plenty of variations between individuals within each one. You could argue that working class people don’t currently have as many social bonds or goodwill that tie them together compared to those other groups do, but I don’t see why that couldn’t change. Claiming anything near “class-based political action [such as a minimum wage, 40 hour workweek, the NLRA] is somewhere between extremely difficult and fundamentally unworkable” is both self-defeating and historically untrue!

I’m much more convinced that future grassroots political movements have become less and less likely to be successful due to the increasing consolidation of weapons and surveillance technology; Andy Masley quotes Orwell in his excellent article on AI that, on average:

“Ages in which the dominant weapon is expensive or difficult to make will tend to be ages of despotism, whereas when the dominant weapon is cheap and simple, the common people have a chance.”

Over time we’ve gone from very little power consolidation in hunter-gatherer times, to very strong power consolidation under feudalism, to somewhat democratic governance in the last few hundred years, to now moving back towards towards power-accumulation and authoritarianism (in the US at least), and I think it would take much more evidence to dissuade me of the fear that power-seeking authoritarians have “no chance” but to fall to the pressures of competition.

https://andymasley.substack.com/p/all-the-ways-i-want-the-ai-debate

Lastly,

With the utmost empathy, your last few paragraphs make me think you’re still beating yourself up. It sounds like you were legitimately harmed by the way our society works, and I don’t think it’s projection at all to identify and want to improve systems which cause you harm! Even if you now think Moloch is to blame, rather than our (very imperfect) implementation of capitalism, I would hazard the advice that you are not individually to blame for either system and have inherent worth and value. :)

I am glad to hear that you are doing better, though, and hope that your relationship is going wonderfully <3

Bob Jacobs's avatar

>There's generally no one person or group with enough power to unilaterally change the system, not even the capitalist class. This is, unironically, a much better explanation of the root cause of most social problems than the vast majority of what you will find in the academic sociological literature.

For what it’s worth, in my circles this is how sociologists/social scientists talk about society, so it may just depend on your faculty/book selection.

In any case, interesting read! I had an opposite journey, from EA ~liberal, to EA ~social democrat, to non-EA ~democratic socialist, after I started reading more and more (both EA and academic sources). The opposition to socialism within EA seems true to me, even beyond resistance to systemic change.

For one, there seems to be a straightforward mistaken belief on how popular socialism is among experts, e.g, this upvoted comment https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kuLDC4Ygs7x3mW5Qe/what-is-the-endgame-of-effective-altruism?commentId=mwyBN8kqsGdL3qrQr:

>One example I can think of with regards to people "graduating" from philosophies is the idea that people can graduate out of arguably "adolescent" political philosophies like libertarianism and socialism.

Despite people in the EA/rat-sphere dismissing socialism out of hand as an "adolescent" political philosophy, actual political philosophers who study this for a living are mostly socialists (socialism 59%, capitalism 27%, other 14%) https://survey2020.philpeople.org/survey/results/5122?aos=34

So if we were proportionate, we would expect a majority of political philosophers giving talks/being invited to EA/rationalists conferences to be socialists. In reality socialism is rarely, if ever, allowed as a topic. Now, it may be that this is just to avoid inflammatory/controversial subjects, but then this doesn’t explain the prevalence of HBD, which is hated in academia (and by racial minorities) but do get invited to conferences. People who point this discrepancy out get downvoted into oblivion: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/anonealeftist

It seems EAs, by and large, also have a bad grasp of what socialism entails. They disproportionately seem to think it’s advocating for a command economy. For example: this (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gm2ggniHqqiNBWWiq/why-not-socialism?commentId=CQuiFrLEqytwwh6zJ) EA forum post on socialism got mostly disagreement votes, and, despite not advocating for (or even mentioning) command economies or planned economies, the most upvoted/“agree-voted” comments are those saying command economies are bad.

You say…

>The EA community was full of privileged people from top universities who had done well under capitalism. No wonder they couldn't see the structural causes of poverty. They were the beneficiaries of the very system creating it.

I’m surprised you didn’t mention the way more straightforward hypothesis, that this may be because their funding is heavily dependent on wealthy capitalists, so they don’t just have an indirect, but also a direct incentive to support them.

For example, they used to have Elon Musk as one of the select few on the EA people page. When I took him off of it in 2023, with a comment explaining why, I got downvoted (https://substack.com/@bobjacobs/p-138712549 ). It seems Scott and co have not really learned their lesson either, since they’re now saying Musk “suddenly” went crazy/evil, being unable to examine their role in praising/promoting him for all those years while the signs were already there.

We also see this in their opposition to non-systemic/immediately-implementable socialist suggestions. For example, I posted an overview of the scientific literature that shows that coops have higher productivity/resiliency/retention etc than capitalist firm structures, so it would be a good idea to turn our EA-orgs into those (I used neutral language and dozens of academic sources). It immediately got downvoted into the negative.

EA may be right about socialism, but if they are, it’s (at least partially) because they got epistemically lucky.

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